Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
